🏉 International Rugby Elo Rankings

About — how it works

A live Elo rating of the 10 tier-1 rugby nations plus Fiji and Japan, updated automatically after every Test match.

What you're looking at

The table ranks the teams by rating, shows whether each is rising or sliding over the last year, and their last five results. The chart tracks how every nation's strength has risen and fallen over the decades, and the calculator at the top lets you pick any two teams and a venue to see the win, draw and loss chances plus a predicted margin.

Fiji and Japan are included with their records back to 2015 (World Cups and Tests). They've played far fewer matches than the long-established sides, so their ratings carry a little more uncertainty — and their chart lines begin in 2015.

How the ranking works

Every team carries a points score. When two teams play, points move from the loser to the winner — a bit like a bet settling. How many move depends on the upset: beat a side you were expected to beat and you gain a little; topple a much stronger team and you gain a lot (and they lose a lot). Playing at home earns a boost, because home advantage is worth real points in rugby. The table updates after every match, so it reflects current form rather than reputation. It's the same idea used to rank chess players and in the FIFA world rankings.

How it differs from the official World Rugby ranking

• Tuned to be accurate. We tested it against thousands of past matches and set it up to predict results as well as possible — it calls about 3 in 4 games correctly. World Rugby's settings are fixed by committee, not optimised.
• No artificial caps. World Rugby limits how much a single result can move the table, which makes it slow to react. Ours lets a genuine shock count for what it's worth, so slumps and surges show up clearly and quickly.
• The full story. It uses every international back to 1871, not just a rolling recent snapshot.
• Open and interactive. The code and data are public, and you can test any matchup yourself instead of just being handed a number.

A passion project, not an official ranking — but the maths is honest, and every bit of it is open to check.